EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
The Arizona Senate race is neck-and-neck and will be decided within the margin of error (MOE) of any poll. Furthermore, Lake is in a strong position to win given the competitive nature of the race despite tens of millions of dollars being spent by Ruben Gallego and his allies in attack ads against Kari Lake.
STATE OF THE RACE:
As the media continues to push biased, Democrat-funded polls, the truth is clear: Aggregated data from over 20 independent polls (See HERE) show a true race within just 2 points, proving the continually competitive nature of the Arizona Senate race. Additionally, our modeled polling average matches exactly with Rasmussen’s poll from earlier this week – the pollster that called Donald Trump’s 2016 victory when no one else said he could win.
Notable surveys can be found below:
Rasmussen Polls (September 23 2024):
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Pollster: Rasmussen
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Sample: 1071 Likely voters
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Results: Kari Lake 45%, Ruben Gallego 47%
CNN Poll (September 1, 2024):
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Pollster: SSRS
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Sample: 682 likely voters
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Results: Kari Lake 44%, Ruben Gallego 47%
NRSC Internal Poll (August 2024):
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Pollster: Peak Insights
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Sample: 800 likely voters
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Results: Kari Lake 46%, Ruben Gallego 46%
Club for Growth Action Poll (August 2024):
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Pollster: WPA Intelligence
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Sample: 600 likely voters
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Results: Ruben Gallego 48%, Kari Lake 46%
Kari Lake Campaign Internal Poll (July 2024):
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Pollster: J.L. Partners
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Sample: 513 likely voters
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Results: Kari Lake 44%, Ruben Gallego 43%
AARP (July 2024):
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Pollster: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates / Impact Research
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Sample: 600 likely voters
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Results: Kari Lake 45%, Ruben Gallego 48%
HISTORICAL CONTEXT: PAST AZ SENATE RESULTS
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Arizona’s recent open Senate seat contests have consistently been close races:
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2022: Mark Kelly* (D) defeated Blake Masters (R) by 5%
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2020: Mark Kelly (D) defeated Martha McSally (R) by 2%
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2018: Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated Martha McSally (R) by 2%
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2016: John McCain* (R) defeated Ann Kirkpatrick (D) by 13%
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2012: Jeff Flake (R) defeated Richard Carmona (D) by 3%
* Incumbent
The competitive nature of these races underscores the inaccuracy of any poll showing a double-digit lead for either candidate in the current race.
PRESIDENTIAL IMPACT:
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HISTORICAL IMPACT: In 2016 and 2020 there were 69 Senate races. In 68 out of 69 races, the result of the Senate race mirrored that of the presidential. The lone exception was Sen. Susan Collins, who had a 30-year track record of being the most bipartisan member of the Senate. Ruben Gallego is no Susan Collins. In fact, Gallego’s record is quite the opposite, voting with Biden & Harris 100% of the time.
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Gallego’s aforementioned strong support for the Biden-Harris agenda and President Trump’s consistently strong lead in Arizona is a good sign for Lake, a Trump ally, and other down-ballot Republicans in Arizona.
STATEMENT FROM THE LAKE CAMPAIGN:
“As Gallego stagnates in polls, Lake is surging and no amount of coordinated media spin will stop Arizonans from rejecting radical Ruben Gallego and electing Kari Lake to the U.S. Senate. State 48 deserves a fighter, and that’s exactly who Kari Lake is. The voters are with her, and she’s here to win.”
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