FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: July 30, 2024
TO: Interested parties
FROM: Lake Senior Advisers and Pollsters
OVERVIEW: In a decisive primary victory, Kari Lake has secured the Republican nomination for the US Senate seat in Arizona. This pivotal win positions Arizona as one of the top pickup targets for the Senate GOP in the upcoming November election. Ruben Gallego is a weak candidate and Far-Left progressive. We will define him and Lake will defeat him in November.
STATE OF THE RACE:
Real Clear Politics’ polling average shows that Arizona’s US Senate Race between Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego has shaped into a prime pickup target for Republicans. Heading into the General Election, Lake is currently in a stronger polling position than all other Senate candidates in competitive races except for Montana – a state that Trump won by 16% in 2020 – despite Gallego spending tens of millions of dollars during the primary.
Expert political forecasters currently give Donald Trump a 75% chance of winning Arizona’s 11 electoral college votes in November, a rating that is significantly higher than any other swing state with a concurrent US Senate contest.
Kari Lake will harness President Trump’s momentum in Arizona and emphasize her strong support for his America First agenda to propel herself to victory in November.
In 2016 and 2020 there were 69 Senate races. In 68 out of 69 races, the result of the Senate race mirrored that of the presidential. The lone exception was Sen. Susan Collins, who had a 30 year track record on being the most bipartisan member of the Senate. Ruben Gallego is no Susan Collins.
THE HILL / DECISION DESK HQ:
With the lone exception of Montana, The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ places Arizona as the strongest pickup opportunity for Republicans in the 2024 election, ranking even ahead of Trump’s stronghold in Ohio.
Decision Desk’s polling average of Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris shows President Trump with a commanding 6.4% average lead, indicating his continued strength in the Copper State even after Biden’s replacement.
INTERNAL POLLING:
Recent internal polling conducted by J.L. Partners found Lake leading Gallego 44 percent to 43 percent among a sample of 513 likely Arizona voters. The survey had a margin of error of 4.3%.
Lackluster Saliency of Pro-Gallego Messaging:
Since January, the Democrats have spent nearly $20 million on paid media trying to recast Ruben Gallego as a pragmatic moderate, rather than a radical progressive. Despite the onslaught of spending, the numbers continue to move in Kari Lake’s direction and the race is a statistical tie.
Post-Messaging Ballot Test:
After reading a statement that describes Gallego’s progressive voting record on a variety of issues, Lake leads Gallego 46 percent to 41 percent. While Lake is well-defined, Gallego remains relatively unknown. This provides a great opportunity to define Gallego.
CONCLUSION:
With West Virginia safely in the Republicans’ corner, the data clearly indicates that the Arizona Senate race is a top pickup opportunity for Republicans to achieve an enduring majority.
Arizona is seen by experts as the strongest swing state for President Trump, whose success in the state will positively impact the Senate race for Kari Lake.
The Arizona Senate race is currently a statistical tie despite Ruben Gallego’s spending onslaught. Gallego has failed to build positive definition with the voters that will decide this election. Given President Trump’s dominance and Gallego’s serious vulnerabilities, Kari Lake is strongly positioned to win the general election.
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