Phoenix, AZ – The Kari Lake for US Senate campaign reaffirms its strong position in the race for Arizona’s open Senate seat, citing multiple polls that show a neck-and-neck contest contrary to a recent low quality outlier poll.
The Real State of the Race
Recent polls from credible sources demonstrate that the Arizona Senate race remains highly competitive:
NRSC Internal Poll (August 2024):
- Pollster: Peak Insights
- Sample: 800 likely voters
- Results: Kari Lake 46%, Ruben Gallego 46%
Club for Growth Action Poll (August 2024):
- Pollster: WPA Intelligence
- Sample: 600 likely voters
- Results: Ruben Gallego 48%, Kari Lake 46%
Kari Lake Campaign Internal Poll (July 2024):
- Pollster: J.L. Partners
- Sample: 513 likely voters
- Results: Kari Lake 44%, Ruben Gallego 43%
AARP (July 2024):
- Pollster: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates / Impact Research
- Sample: 600 likely voters
- Results: Kari Lake 45%, Ruben Gallego 48%
These polls, conducted with likely voters and representative sampling, align closely with Arizona’s political reality and historical voting patterns.
Historical Context: Arizona’s Open Senate Contests Within 3% For Over a Decade
Arizona’s recent open Senate seat contests have consistently been close races:
- 2022: Mark Kelly* (D) defeated Blake Masters (R) by 5%
- 2020: Mark Kelly (D) defeated Martha McSally (R) by 2%
- 2018: Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated Martha McSally (R) by 2%
- 2016: John McCain* (R) defeated Ann Kirkpatrick (D) by 13%
- 2012: Jeff Flake (R) defeated Richard Carmona (D) by 3%
* Incumbent
The competitive nature of these races underscores the inaccuracy of any poll showing a double-digit lead for either candidate in the current race.
The Lake Campaign Released the Following Statement:
“Recent polling data clearly shows that this race is neck-and-neck, with multiple surveys putting Kari Lake within the margin of error. Any poll showing a large lead for either candidate is plainly out of step with Arizona’s electoral history and the current political landscape.
Arizonans are rejecting Ruben Gallego’s radical agenda and embracing Kari Lake’s vision for a secure border, a strong economy, and a return to law and order. High quality polling confirms what we’re seeing on the ground – enthusiasm for Kari Lake’s campaign continues to grow as we approach Election Day.
We’re confident that as voters learn more about the stark contrast between Kari Lake’s proven leadership and Ruben Gallego’s record of far-left policies, they will choose the candidate who truly puts Arizona First. Our campaign’s momentum is building every day, and we look forward to victory in November.”
The Kari Lake for US Senate campaign remains focused on our winning strategy of aggressive voter outreach and strong messaging that resonates with Arizonans. We will continue to highlight Kari Lake’s commitment to addressing the issues that matter most to Arizona families.
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