TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Kari Lake for Senate campaign and McLaughlin & Associates
RE: Kari Lake Will Flip Arizona
DATE: May 21, 2024
As a top-tier presidential battleground state with an open U.S. Senate seat, the political climate presents a strong opening for the GOP U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake.
Even with tens of millions of dollars being spent in recent weeks by far-left Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego’s campaign, the Arizona U.S. Senate race remains tied internally and Donald Trump continues to have a commanding lead by over 5% in the Real Clear Politics polling average in Arizona against Joe Biden.
Real Clear Politics 2024: Arizona: Trump vs Biden
There is no Senate candidate in the country that is more closely aligned with President Trump than Kari Lake. Since 2016, the winning parties for both offices were the same nationwide – a first in the modern history of the Senate chamber. This phenomenon almost repeated itself in 2020, with one exception, Susan Collins in Maine.
Team Lake internal polling shows the race is tied, and the published, independent media polling has the race essentially tied, within the margin of error. Even the most recent NY Times poll had the race a statistical tie at 46/43, well within the polls margin of error, and this poll under-sampled Republicans significantly. The NY Times Arizona poll was only 29% Republican, meanwhile Republicans will in all likelihood be in the 37%-39% range on election day of the overall electorate in AZ, which models after 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022.
In spite of Radical Ruben’s millions and lies, he is hitting a ceiling of about 45% of the vote. And his ads are not moving the needle in his favor, he is also very undefined to voters, which as our campaign starts our media buy, gives us an opportunity to define Ruben Gallego as the Far-Left candidate he truly is. Which includes his support for open borders and all of Biden’s reckless spending which has led to high inflation, high gas prices, and skyrocketing mortgage rates. In fact, since he started spending millions, Lake’s numbers have gone up since February in Emerson Polling: Gallego led by 7 points in February, 4 points in March, and now only leads by 2 points in the latest poll for April, a statistical tie.
What we are seeing in the internal polling: Kari Lake has a higher ceiling to expand her vote among key voter segments. Biden has a disapproval rating in the high 50’s in AZ, half of the voters already agree, that Gallego is too much like Biden and another two-thirds say the country is off on the wrong track.
Among the all important undecided voters, Joe Biden has a 74% disapproval rating and Gallego only has a 35% unfavorable rating among those voters. Once voters know that Gallego has been a rubber stamp for Biden, those undecided voters will coalesce behind Kari Lake. Not to mention, the generic Republican leads in the ballot, 48%-45% and among the undecided they prefer the Republican, 55%/36%. These undecided voters are more Republican and they vote for Donald Trump, 55%/26% which means the undecideds should be significantly more inclined to vote for Kari Lake.
Bottom line: this race is a toss-up, statistical tie, with Donald Trump holding a commanding lead over Joe Biden. The more voters hear about Ruben Gallego’s true progressive record, the more likely they will vote for Kari Lake. Arizona remains one of the strongest pickup opportunities for Senate Republicans. Lake is well positioned to win in November.
